by Ram ben Ze'ev
As preliminary numbers from the 2024 U.S. presidential election come into focus, a significant question has emerged around voter turnout. In the highly charged and competitive political climate of 2024, many expected a turnout surpassing even the record-breaking numbers of 2020.
However, the final tally tells a different story, with the combined votes for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris amounting to roughly 140.6 million—a sharp decline from the 155 million votes cast in 2020.
The question that looms is: where are the missing 14 million votes? (* see editor's note below)
A Closer Look at the 2020 Numbers
One explanation for the discrepancy could be that the 2020 voter turnout figures were overstated. Officially, Joe Biden received approximately 81 million votes, while Donald Trump received about 74 million—a combined total of 155 million, which represented the highest voter turnout in modern U.S. history.
Yet, as 2024’s numbers reveal a significant drop in total votes, it’s worth reconsidering whether Biden’s 81 million votes in 2020 was ever a realistic figure. If Biden did not receive 81 million votes in 2020, it would significantly alter our understanding of turnout dynamics over the past two election cycles and raise questions about the accuracy of the 2020 results.
Was the 2020 Turnout Inflated?
If 2020’s record numbers were overstated, it would mean that fewer voters participated in that election than previously reported. This could explain the apparent 14-million-vote shortfall in 2024 and would imply that the anticipated "extra turnout" might have been based on inflated figures from four years ago.
While the 2024 numbers are yet to be finalized, the difference between 2020 and what we have so far is far too large to ignore. If there were still 14.6 million votes left to count, the election would not have been declared.
Implications and the Path Forward
If 2020’s turnout figures were indeed overstated, then the 2024 election turnout could be a reflection of normal voter behavior, rather than a surprising drop-off. The possibility that 2020’s results could have been misrepresented underlines the need for transparency in election data and a closer examination of voting trends to ensure public trust in the accuracy of reported figures.
As we move forward, the lingering question remains: were 2020’s numbers an anomaly—or was the turnout of that election simply too good to be true?
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Bill White (Ram ben Ze'ev) is CEO of WireNews Limited, Mayside Partners Limited, MEADHANAN Agency, Kestrel Assets Limited (developer of MAYCOINS), SpudsToGo Limited and Executive Director of Hebrew Synagogue
Editor's Note: The final numbers show nearly 10 million missing votes/voters in 2024 compared to 2020.
Trump 2024: 74,650,754 votes
Harris 2024: 70,916,946 votes
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Total 145,567,700 votes
Biden 2020: 81,283,501 votes
Trump 2020: 74,223,975 votes
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Total 155,507, 476 votes
There are 9,939,776 missing voters and only 7,059,526 votes separated the candidates in 2020. Trump only picked up 426,779 votes in 2024 compared to 2020—not a huge number.